A Study on Exponential Smoothing Method for Forecasting

Authors

  • Shastri S Dept. of CS&IT, Kathua Campus, University of Jammu, J&K, India
  • Sharma A Dept. of CS&IT, Kathua Campus, University of Jammu, J&K, India
  • Mansotra V Dept. of CS&IT University of Jammu, J&K, India
  • Sharma A Dept. of IT & Research, UCCA, Guru Kashi University, Talwandi Sabo, Punjab
  • Bhadwal AS Dept. of CS&IT, Ramnagar Campus, University of Jammu, J&K, India
  • Kumari M Dept. of CS&IT, Kathua Campus, University of Jammu, J&K, India

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26438/ijcse/v6i4.482485

Keywords:

Data Mining, BCG, Time Series data, Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

Data mining is one of the most essential steps of Knowledge Discovery process that is required to extract interesting patterns from enormous size of data. In this paper, we have used the BCG coverage data i.e. Percentage of live births who received Bacillus Calmette Guerin (BCG) a vaccine against tuberculosis and forecast the BCG coverage percentage for the next five years based on historical yearly data of BCG coverage in India by using the exponential smoothing technique of forecasting. Exponential Smoothing is a well-liked forecast technique that uses weighted values of previous series observations to predict the immediate future for time series data. The aim of this paper is to study the exponential smoothing method of time series for forecasting purpose.

References

Manaswini Pradhan, “Data Mining & Health Care: Techniques of Application,” International Journal of Innovative Research in Computer and Communication Engineering, vol. 2, no. 12, pp.7445-7455, Dec. 2014.

V. Priyavadana, A. Sivashankari and R. Senthil Kumar, “A Comparative Study of Data Mining Applications in Diagnosing Diseases,” International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology, vol. 2, no. 7, pp. 1046-1053, Oct. 2015.

Bharati M. Ramageri, “Data Mining Techniques and Applications,” Indian Journal of Computer Science and Engineering, vol. 1, no. 4, pp. 301-305.

Sourabh Shastri, Anand Sharma and Vibhakar Mansotra, “Predicting Pilgrimage in Numbers to Shri Mata Vaishno Devi, Katra, J&K using Time Series Analysis,” International Journal of Emerging Research in Management & Technology, vol. 4, no. 10, pp. 102-106, Oct. 2015.

Mohitulameen Ahmed Mustafi, “Factor Influencing of Child Immunization in Bangladesh,” International Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies, vol. 1, no. 3, pp. 55-65, Sept. 2013.

The NHP India website. [Online]. Available: http://www.nhp.gov.in/

Sourabh Shastri, Anand Sharma and Prof. Vibhakar Mansotra, “Child Immunization Coverage - A Critical Review,” IOSR Journal of Computer Engineering, vol. 18, no. 5, pp. 48-53, Oct. 2016.

Michael Favorov et. al., “Comparative Tuberculosis (TB) Prevention Effectiveness in Children of Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) Vaccines from Different Sources, Kazakhstan,” PLoS One, vol. 7, no. 3, pp. 1-8, Mar. 2012.

Oli, A.N. et. al., “Potency and immunogenicity of bacillus calmette Guerin (BCG) vaccines used in routine immunization programme in South-East, Nigeria,” African Journal of Pharmacy and Pharmacology, vol. 8, no. 47, pp. 1186-1191, Dec. 2014.

Nagabhushanam D. et. al., “Prediction of Tuberculosis using Data Mining Techniques on Indian Patient’s Data,” International Journal of Computer Science and Technology, vol. 4, no. spl-4, pp. 262-265, Oct-Dec. 2013.

The TBFACTS website. [Online]. Available:

http://www.tbfacts.org/

The UNICEF Global Databases website. [Online]. Available: http://www.data.unicef.org/

Sourabh Shastri, Anand Sharma and Vibhakar Mansotra, “A Model for Forecasting Tourists Arrival in J&K, India,” International Journal of Computer Applications, vol. 129, no. 15, pp. 32-36, Nov. 2015.

Eva Ostertagova and Oskar Ostertag, “The Simple Exponential Smoothing Model,” in Proc MMaMS, 2011, p.380.

Anand Sharma, Sourabh Shastri and Vibhakar Mansotra, “Forecasting Public Healthcare Services in Jammu & Kashmir Using Time Series Data Mining,” International Journal of Advanced Research in Computer Science and Software Engineering, vol. 5, no. 12, pp. 570-575, Dec. 2015.

Downloads

Published

2025-11-12
CITATION
DOI: 10.26438/ijcse/v6i4.482485
Published: 2025-11-12

How to Cite

[1]
S. Shastri, A. Sharma, V. Mansotra, A. Sharma, A. S. Bhadwal, and M. Kumari, “A Study on Exponential Smoothing Method for Forecasting”, Int. J. Comp. Sci. Eng., vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 482–485, Nov. 2025.

Issue

Section

Research Article